DRAM, SSD shortages might final months to years, distributors say
The continuing DRAM and flash reminiscence / SSD scarcity reveals no indicators of assuaging, with reminiscence distributors telling PCWorld that the shortages in each markets will proceed to pull on for months, even years.
The CES 2026 commerce present in Las Vegas final week was a possibility for patrons to speak to suppliers and vice versa, making an attempt to scrounge up no matter reminiscence chips they may. However the information simply retains getting grimmer.
In mid-November, analysts started reporting that DRAM costs might rise all through the primary half of 2026. In early December, Micron stated that it might discontinue its Essential model and its apply of promoting DRAM on to customers. Kingston has additionally warned that costs will proceed to go greater within the close to time period — pushing PC costs upwards as properly.
Executives at Micron say these prospects — presumably together with PC makers — at the moment are asking for multi-year offers to guarantee provide. “I believe, from our view, 6 to 12 months seems to be extraordinarily constrained, and even out to 24 months seems very, very constrained,” stated Mark Montierth, senior vp of the cell and shopper enterprise unit at Micron, in an interview with PCWorld.com at CES. “DRAM, for positive. SSD perhaps not as a lot, however that’s as a result of there are extra gamers, and it’s tougher to triangulate all that.”
Chris Kooistra, the vp of selling for Different World Computing (OWC), which manufactures SSDs, informed PCWorld he sees the SSDs being constrained for at the least six months, following a value spike in 2025. OWC bought SSDs at a better value on Black Friday than at the start of November due to the surprising and unavoidable value will increase, he stated.
A 3rd supply at a peripherals producer that buys reminiscence and storage for its personal makes use of additionally characterised the scenario: “Finest guess, SSDs, many months. DRAM, I don’t know. Years, perhaps.”
Near chaos
When a monetary market careens uncontrolled, governments can put a halt to buying and selling to provide the trade a breather, and restore order. There was no such pause for the reminiscence market, which historically cycles between increase years, when costs soar, and busts, once they plunge. Each SSDs and reminiscence modules are tied very intently to the person costs of flash chips and DRAM, as they don’t have that rather more extra logic.
As hyperscalers have snatched up each little bit of reminiscence and storage they’ll, the commodity reminiscence makers say they need to sustain. Micron, for instance, justified its closing of Essential by noting that the full marketplace for information facilities rose from about 40 to 60 %.
(Micron nonetheless sells reminiscence modules, even to customers — simply not directly, through PC makers. “The [Crucial] storefront that permits you to purchase stuff from us is shutting, however not our assist for that [consumer] market,” Montierth stated.)
“So it’s not that we’re specializing in that market, it’s that market is simply exploding so quick,” Chris Moore, Micron’s vp of selling for the shopper enterprise, added. “We’ve got fashions internally of how a lot of our provide we wish to go into each phase, and that phase is rising so quick that it’s simply to keep up our share there’s requiring extra bits.”
Proper now, the shortages in each reminiscence and storage are demand based mostly, and easy economics says that when demand will increase and provide stays the identical, costs will enhance. However it’s not an orderly market; firms have little time to plan.
Phison, which manufactures SSD controllers in addition to “white label” SSDs bought below different manufacturers, reportedly is bought out for 2026, Digitimes reported, with chief government Khein-seng Pua reporting that the majority NAND makers are bought out for a similar interval. The short-term “spot” market is drying up. And nobody fairly is aware of what to anticipate.
“Most firms have an settlement annually of basic allocation, then it’s mentioned and up to date quarterly with pricing quantities,” Phison U.S. president Michael Wu stated, as reported by Phison consultant Lynn Kelly in an electronic mail to PCWorld.com. “The latest scarcity has modified these typical planning cycles, nonetheless, since calls for are exceeding trade provide. So allocation as we speak relies on market dynamics.”
Until the AI market folds, the one possible way out is new fabs
Some methods that may work within the logic market. Each AMD and Nvidia are contemplating reviving cheaper outdated silicon simply to supply prospects a value break, and — within the case of AMD — permit them to make use of older DDR4 reminiscence modules as an alternative. (The issue with that strategy is that the DDR4 market is basically lifeless, as DRAM makers have moved on to DDR5.) And in storage, manufacturing older flash reminiscence merely wouldn’t provide as a lot storage, making them much less “bit dense” and exacerbating the issue. Micron launched a single-sided M.2 2230 SSD, the Micron 3610, on the present, with capacities from 1TB to 4TB.
New fabs additionally take years to finish; Micron broke floor on a DRAM fab in Boise in October 2023, and Moore stated that first output might be in mid-2027. (Micron initially stated DRAM output would start in mid-2026.) At CES, Micron additionally introduced that it’s going to break floor on Jan. 16 on a brand new $100 billion megafab in New York that can doubtlessly be the most important semiconductor facility within the U.S.
We’re all on the identical boat now, after the downturn in 2023 that was so painful,” Moore stated. “Nobody might afford to go construct new fabs…That’s what we’re paying for proper now, when customers have been actually completely satisfied.”
